John V. Schneider and Corby D. Thompson

Conventional wisdom may be standing in the way of electing an energetic, new Congressman in Indiana’s 5th District.  Many who want change are on the sidelines, assuming that numerous strong challengers will hand Burton an easy victory.  Let’s examine this point of view, before it creates a “fait accompli.”

The “conventional wisdom” holds that most incumbents enjoy a strong “base” and that most challengers are unknown and underfunded (neither is true in the 5th). Therefore, multiple challengers would “split the anti-incumbent vote” and hand it back to the incumbent.

This district includes parts of eleven counties, from Peru and Huntington to Franklin and Shelbyville. If this were Burton’s old 6th District, he would have been defeated in 2008, when he won only 39.9 percent of the vote in Marion County (his home “base” since the 70’s), and only 44% in the doughnut areas.

The more remote, rural communities saved Dan Burton’s hide in 2008.  Burton won 67% of northern counties outside the reach of the Indianapolis media (about 30% of the ’08 vote) market, and 62% of Luke Messer’s new home of Shelby County (4.6 % of the primary vote in ‘08).

So, should we believe that these rural, older, conservative voters are Burton’s secret, impenetrable base? Not according to leaders who live there. For example, in northern “Burton country,” McVey has already won the endorsement of the Chairmen of all three County Councils, in Miami, Wabash and Huntington Counties (14.5% of vote in 08 primary), along with numerous Commissioners, business and farm leaders. Mayors in Huntington, Wabash and Peru have each refused to endorse Burton’s reelection.

Insiders in rural counties stress that socially conservative, stalwart Republicans in Northern Indiana vote for the most familiar, politically conservative choice. However, voters in this northern tier were represented by Buyer, Chocola and Souder before 2002 and have little personal connection to Burton.  John McGoff didn’t have the background or money to penetrate that fog in ’08, a luxury that Burton will not have in 2010.  Unemployment rates within northern counties are much higher in areas where Burton won than in suburban Indianapolis, including Grant and Howard Counties. Burton voted against helping Detroit and the economic stimulus plans.

Perhaps most importantly, in rural farm and manufacturing communities, voters of all ages and incomes are hunting for bear, and this year, bear is spelled “p-o-l-i-t-i-c-i-an.” The candidate who does best in 2010 is the candidate who can earn the votes of angry, anti-incumbent, anti-establishment voters.

Burton’s camp likes to say the Obama-Clinton primary contest hurt him in 2008, as a few Rush Limbaugh and moderate Republicans apparently pulled Democratic ballots in that contest. Those voters will be back at his side in 2010, says Burton’s staff.  Don’t count on it.

Rush’s voters are also Sarah Palin-loving, tea party-attending, anti-Washington voters, and when they come home in May, they’ll bring with them at least one or more soft Republicans, Democrats and independents. Common sense suggests these voters will support “anyone but Burton.”

Despite the pundits’ obsession to the contrary, this contest will not be solely about money. John McGoff had good financial resources in 2008 and a one-on-one shot at Burton (the same format most long for), and he lost. This is a primary battle, in a district where only 88,000 voters turned out in the busy 2008 election year, and fired up primary voters will know a lot about these candidates.

If Congressman Burton falls as low as I believe possible, the right challenger can win, even in a crowded field.  Given that all of the current candidates are likely to stay in and have resources, I believe this contest will hinge on which challenger has the best balance of money, message, geographic base, and grassroots turn-out effort.  If I’m correct, a challenger who can capture 25-30 percent of the vote can win. So, who is best positioned to win under these conditions?

• McVey is the best man for the job. He has a balanced background of business, family and political experience and his bold, substantive vision.

• He’s the only candidate from Hamilton County, where #25-30 percent of the likely primary vote resides, and where voters gave Daniels an 87,132-vote positive margin in ’08. McVey was born and raised there and is building a very impressive organization in his backyard.

• His run against Julia Carson was more popular in the doughnut counties that it was in the 7th District, and he’s a regular on WIBC’s Garrison show.

• He’s the only candidate never elected to public office, and the small towns, farmers and tea party groups (in Burton’s “base”) like his style, his zealous support for term limits and his unwillingness to accept PAC contributions.  He’s the closest thing to an outsider in this field.

• He’s the only candidate who knows and comes from agriculture. He’s a Purdue boy, ran several farm organizations in Indiana, and was Quayle’s ag guy (the Quayle from Huntington).

• He has dedicated his energies to retail, face-to-face campaigning. He has traded stronger funding to shake more hands, attend more events, and meet more voters than any of the other candidates. His colorful RV is a popular and familiar site across the District.

• He is a proven and highly talented campaigner, having managed Dan Coats’ 1992 win over Joe Hogsett, and he ran one of the best congressional challenges in the country in 2002.

• McVey raised over one million dollars in his challenge to Carson. He will have adequate resources.

This District is a perfect bellwether for a Republican party that needs to show it can renew itself. It’s time for this diverse, rich community to roll up its sleeves, pick a candidate and MAKE one competitive.

I’m putting my chips on McVey.

John V. Schneider – Chairman Emeritus, The Schneider Corporation, Indianapolis, IN

Corby D. Thompson – President, The Thompson Companies, Fishers, IN

December 29, 2009

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